How will new U.S. air restrictions impact Mexico's supply chain? Read and act today

The recent escalation between the United States and Mexico over aviation is beginning to leave its mark... and not only in the skies. New measures announced by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) herald an uncertain present and future for logistics, cargo and the competitiveness of bilateral trade.

✈️ 1. What is happening in aviation?

Starting in October, the U.S. will require authorizations previous for both scheduled and charter flights operated by Mexican airlines to its territory. In addition, they will study to revoke antitrust immunity which allows Aeromexico and Delta to operate as a single entity.

This is in addition to the veto on new flightsThe company's operations, increased control over charter flights and the possible disruption of key alliances such as Delta-Aeroméxico.

🌎 2. Why does it affect the supply chain?

• Operational insecurityThe airlines would have no assurance that their flights - especially cargo flights - would be approved, which directly impacts logistical plans, schedules and costs.
• Delays and higher logistics costs: Early approval, coupled with new slot limitations at AICM and the forced transfer of cargo to AIFA, can lead to bottlenecks, operational redundancy and longer waiting times.
• Increased use of alternate routes: Given the uncertainty in the air-sky, rail and sea routes will be activated, making transit more expensive and extending delivery times, especially in sensitive times for e-commerce and manufacturing.

3. What does Boeing say? And how does Mexico fit in?

Although Boeing projects that air cargo will grow at an annual rate of 3.7 % through 2044, the picture becomes more complex when political or regulatory tensions intervene. The relocation of cargo to AIFA was a technical decision, but the U.S. interprets it as a violation of the 2015 treatywhich provides for freedom of traffic without arbitrary restrictions.

What can companies and operators do?

• Adapt chains: Redesigning routes, deadlines and alternative suppliers - land and sea - can help avoid paralysis.
• Act fast: Communicate with shippers, airlines and SCT to anticipate and expedite additional permits or documentation.
• Lobby together: Through chambers such as Canaero and IATA, urge governments to resume the technical bilateral dialogue to negotiate sustainable solutions

🤝 5. Why does it matter?

• ConnectivityThe U.S. accounts for nearly 70 % of Mexico's tourist and air cargo traffic; any blockade will impact not only fares, but entire industries.
• Competitiveness: Delays, extra costs and lack of certainty make products more expensive, reduce margins and prevent SMEs from participating with confidence.
• Legal certaintyThe risk of an airline losing routes or certification creates a disincentive to investment and long-term planning.

✅ What to do now?

• Find out more at on key routes that suddenly require re-authorization.
• Review your logistics chainidentifies risk points.
• Participate in forums, chambers and meetings to activate proactive negotiation between Mexico and the US.

Bibliography / Sources consulted

1. T21
   "New U.S. aviation measures will impact Mexico's supply chain and logistics sector".
   Published: July 2025
   URL: https://t21.com.mx/nuevas-medidas-en-aviacion-por-parte-de-eu-impactaran-a-cadena-de-suministro-y-sector-logistico-de-mexico/
2. Aristegui Noticias
   "Crisis with the U.S. leaves Mexican aviation in total uncertainty: air law expert".
   Published: July 21, 2025
   URL: https://aristeguinoticias.com/210725/mexico/crisis-con-eu-deja-a-la-aviacion-mexicana-en-total-incertidumbre-experto-en-derecho-aereo/
3. The Economist
   "Bilateral aviation in crisis" (Opinion column)
   Published: July 21, 2025
   URL: https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/opinion/bilateral-aviacion-20250721-769190.html
4. El País Mexico
   "Vetoing Mexican flights and banning alliances: the new front in the U.S. trade war against Mexico"
   Published: July 22, 2025
   URL: https://elpais.com/mexico/2025-07-22/veto-a-vuelos-mexicanos-y-prohibicion-de-alianzas-el-nuevo-frente-de-la-guerra-comercial-de-ee-uu-contra-mexico.html
5. Yahoo News / EFE
   "IATA proposes technical dialogue to resolve air dispute between Mexico and the U.S."
   Published: July 21, 2025
   URL: https://es-us.noticias.yahoo.com/iata-propone-di%C3%A1logo-diferendo-a%C3%A9reo-014014476.html
6. Acontecer San Luis
   "AMLO Ignored the U.S. in Air Agreement: National Briefs".
   Published: July 22, 2025
   URL: https://acontecersanluis.wordpress.com/2025/07/22/ignoro-amlo-a-eu-en-acuerdo-aereo-22-07-2025-breves-nacionales/